Council of Mortgage Lenders Forecasts for 2017 and 2018

The Council of Mortgage Lenders is forecasting that fewer reisdential properties will be sold in 2017 and 2018 in comparison to 2016 but gross residential mortgage lending will be greater in 2017 and 2018 than last year.
It is being forecast that gross lending for residential properties will be greater in 2017 and 2018 in comparison to 2016.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders has recently produced its forecasts for the residential mortgage market during 2017 and 2018. Below we provide a brief overview of some of the predictions.

Amount of lending

In 2017, it is forecast that there will be gross advances of £248 billion with net advances of £30 billion. It is predicted that there will be 1,170,000 residential property transactions.

In 2018, it is forecast that there will be gross advances of £252 billion with net advances being the same as in 2017 – £30 billion. It is predicted that there will be 1,155,000 residential property transactions.

So how do the above figures compare with last year? Well, in 2016 gross advances totalled £246 billion with net advances amounting to £38 billion. There were 1,238,000 residential property transactions.

Arrears and Repossessions

Arrears

In 2017, it is forecast that there will be 100,000 mortgages in arrears with 2.5% or more of the balance at the end of the period.

In 2018, it is forecast that there will be 110,000 mortgages in arrears with 2.5% or more of the balance at the end of the period.

How does this compare with 2016? Last year there were 93,000 mortgages in arrears with 2.5% or more of the balance at the end of the period.

Repossessions

In 2017, it is forecast that there will be 10,000 repossessions.

In 2018, it is forecast that there will be 13,000 repossessions.

How do the above figures for repossessions compare with last year? In 2016 there were 7,900 repossessions.

As can be seen from the above figures, it is being forecast that there will be a slight increase in gross mortgage advances in 2017 and 2018 but fewer property transactions in 2017 in comparison to last year and there will be a further reduction in property transactions in 2018. It is concerning to see that there may be an increase in the number of mortgage accounts being in arrears by 2.5% or more of the balance at the end of the period and an increase in the number of properties being repossessed.

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